Ian Kinsler San Diego Padres Roster Review 2019

This is the latest post of MLBTR's annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team's wintertime dealings.

The Padres stunned the baseball game globe with a franchise-record free-agent signing for a 2d straight offseason equally they look to emerge from an backbreaking rebuilding procedure.

Major League Signings

• Manny Machado, 3B: x years, $300MM (opt-out clause subsequently the 2023 flavour)
• Garrett Richards, RHP: ii years, $15.5MM
• Ian Kinsler, 2B/3B: ii years, $8MM (includes $500K buyout of 2021 club option)
• Adam Warren, RHP: one year, $2.5MM (includes $500K buyout of 2020 club option)
• Aaron Loup, LHP: i year, $1.4MM (includes $200K buyout of 2020 club choice)
• Total spend: $327.4M

Trades and Waiver Claims

• Claimed SS/2B Greg Garcia off waivers from the Cardinals
• Traded LHP Clayton Richard and greenbacks to the Blueish Jays in commutation for OF Connor Panas
• Claimed OF Socrates Brito off waivers from the Diamondbacks and traded him to the Blue Jays in commutation for outfielder Rodrigo Orozco
• Traded C Raffy Lopez to the Braves in exchange for greenbacks
• Traded RHP Colten Brewer to the Cherry-red Sox in exchange for 2B Esteban Quiroz
• Traded RHP Walker Lockett to the Indians in exchange for RHP Ignacio Feliz
• Traded RHP Rowan Wick to the Cubs in commutation for 3B Jason Vosler

Notable Minor League Signings

• Chris Stewart, Sammy Solis, Alex Dickerson, Allen Craig, Dietrich Enns, Carlos Torres, Boog Powell, Eric Stout, Paco Rodriguez

Notable Losses

• Clayton Richard, A.J. Ellis, Freddy Galvis, Christian Villanueva, Cory Spangenberg, Carlos Asuaje, Kazuhisa Makita, Colin Rea

If the Padres' signing of Eric Hosmer to an eight-year, $144MM deal a yr ago raised eyebrows around the baseball game world, then this offseason's conclusion to sign Manny Machado to what was then the third-largest contract in MLB history prompted jaws to hit the floor. The move made some sense on paper even before the Padres were linked to Machado in earnest. But it's one thing to observe that an on-the-rise squad lacks a clear heir apparent at 3rd base at a time when a 26-year-one-time marquee role player at that position hits the marketplace; it's another thing entirely to legitimately expect the Padres, who have topped a $100MM Opening Day payroll exactly once, to take the $300MM plunge and change the very cobweb of their organization to this extent.

It sounds odd to call the deal a bargain for San Diego, just the marketplace for Machado never developed to the point where the Padres had steep plenty competition to bow out of the bidding. The Phillies were linked to Machado all winter but seemingly preferred Bryce Harper (whom the Friars also explored to at least some extent). The White Sox talked a big game early in the winter but only came through with an offer that no one would've expected to be competitive prior to the onset of free agency and, in the finish, was two years and $50MM in guaranteed money shy of the Padres' offer. The Yankees wined and dined Machado back in December, just information technology doesn't seem that they were even neat on reaching the White Sox' level of interest.

Machado has been worth 22 to 23 wins to a higher place replacement over the past iv seasons, depending on one'southward preferred version of the metric, and at but 26 years old, there's little reason to expect imminent decline. It's possible that Machado's all-time offensive year(southward) has nonetheless to come up, in fact, and a move back to third base could give him an fifty-fifty higher ceiling in terms of WAR given his tiptop defence force there (equally compared to his glovework at short, which was met with mixed reviews). Penciling Machado in for 25 wins over the offset half of his contract wouldn't be specially ambitious. Even if his output halved from that signal along, the Padres would still be paying just about $8MM per win over the life of the deal.

A uncomplicated dollars-per-War argument is perhaps too rudimentary a means of evaluating a contract of this magnitude. But, the fact that the Padres bought a huge portion of a star histrion's prime while only paying him through his age-35 season (as opposed to the Albert Pujols/Miguel Cabrera-style deals that began on the tail terminate of their primes and run into the players' early on 40s) is a win in and of itself. From a bigger-moving picture level, it's refreshing to see a team deed in a win-at present capacity. Granted, the Padres are every bit guilty as anyone when it comes to trotting out half-hearted rosters in the name of "rebuilding" toward a "sustained window of contention" — pop terms in today's game but concepts that yield inherently diminished returns when a third of the league is acting in such a capacity — but they've made good on their hope to invest when their core is on the cusp of the Majors.

The Machado addition was far from the only blockbuster move the Padres tried to orchestrate this winter. San Diego was tied to ace-caliber artillery like Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer and Noah Syndergaard on the merchandise marketplace. They were reported to be a legitimate player for All-Star catcher J.T. Realmuto earlier Miami flipped him to Philadelphia. They too explored a plethora of trades involving their glut of outfielders  The Padres, as previously noted, at least internally discussed the possibility of adding Harper even after signing Machado, and they did accept a face-to-face meeting with him at i indicate.

Ultimately, however, the balance of the squad's offseason moves amounted to tinkering around the edges of the roster. The Padres know that for ameliorate or worse, they're stuck with the contracts given to Hosmer and Wil Myers, and they entered the winter with a subcontract system teeming with about-MLB-fix options at a number of other key spots. Kinsler was brought in largely to serve as a leader who'll part every bit a reserve role player. General manager A.J. Preller knows the well-respected old All-Star from the pair's days together in the Rangers organization. Preller & Co. likewise added a pair of affordable relief arms, Adam Warren and Aaron Loup, who can exist controlled through 2020 via reasonable club options.

San Diego became the latest club to leap on the trend of guaranteed two-year deals for pitchers rehabbing from Tommy John surgery as well. Still, their $15.5MM promise to Garrett Richards doesn't exit that much space for the squad to consider the signing a bargain. Richards won't pitch in 2019, pregnant they're essentially banking on the oft-injured righty to be a $15MM+ bullpen in his first year dorsum from Tommy John surgery. Information technology's a tall lodge, although Richards has admittedly been that type of pitcher since 2014 … when healthy.

Questions Remaining

The biggest question surrounding the Padres may not even exist whether Machado tin can testify their $300MM investment to be sound when all is said and washed. Rather, the more firsthand question was created past the organization itself with last calendar week'due south declaration that wunderkind Fernando Tatis Jr. would suspension camp as the Opening Twenty-four hour period shortstop.

Tatis is a lauded young talent who is generally regarded every bit i of baseball'south three best overall prospects. He'll eventually team with another well-regarded young talent, Luis Urias, though Kinsler will fill out the initial double-play tandem. The Padres are confident that the Tatis-Urias duo will ultimately form an aristocracy middle-infield pairing, but the sudden nature of Tatis' promotion to the Majors only puts him in a larger spotlight. If he's ready for a starring role right off the bat, the organization'south timeline to contention will exist considerably accelerated.

It might be misleading to call the aforementioned bulk of outfielders on the Padres' roster a "logjam" or a "surplus." While the Padres take a large group — Myers, Manuel Margot, Hunter Renfroe, Franchy Cordero, Franmil Reyes and the currently injured Travis Jankowski — none is a lock to be all that productive. Myers certainly has a runway record of hit for ability and stealing bases, simply his glovework is questionable and his strikeout tendencies limit his on-base of operations pct.

None of the other four take established themselves yet as everyday Major Leaguers. It seems that something will take to give eventually, especially once Jankowski is back this summer. Perhaps information technology'll sort itself out if some combination of Reyes, Margot, Cordero and Renfroe performs poorly enough to be optioned dorsum to Triple-A, but a trade between at present and July 31 also seems quite plausible.

The 2019 season could too serve as a proving year for the Padres' catching corps. Austin Hedges, at this point, seems unlikely always to be much of an on-base threat. His ability and premium defense make that a reasonable trade-off, though. What to expect from Francisco Mejia will be the greater question with regard to this pairing. Mejia'southward bat has long made him one of baseball'southward most highly ranked prospects, but his defense isn't as advanced. If he can cement himself as a feasible option, the Padres could either look to deal Hedges or simply savor in a strong pairing that tin be manipulated to focus either on defense or run production depending on the twenty-four hours's opponent.

The other significant question facing the Padres this year is which of their touted young pitchers will take the next pace and stake claims to long-term rotation spots. Joey Lucchesi looks to have done then with a solid rookie campaign in 2018, and at that place are extraordinarily high hopes for top prospect and Bound Training showstopper Chris Paddack, whose ascendant Cactus League efforts put him nether the microscope. Eric Lauer and Nick Margevicius are getting early on opportunities, as is 27-year-old Matt Strahm (now that the sometime Regal is healthy). Waiting in the wings are Logan Allen, Cal Quantrill and Michel Baez, among many others.

The success of that group volition decide how aggressively the Padres pursue rotation options. San Diego figures once more to discuss the possible conquering of a loftier-terminate arm with multiple years of club control remaining in the coming summertime or in the 2019-20 offseason to follow. The team would surely be more motivated to strike a deal if its collection of young artillery struggles or suffers numerous injuries. (Jacob Nix is already sidelined by a partial UCL tear.) Looking ahead to the winter, Gerrit Cole leads a crop of complimentary-agent pitchers that too includes 30-or-younger artillery such equally Madison Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler, Alex Wood, Michael Wacha, Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda.

The statement tin can certainly exist made that the Padres should make a more than immediate upgrade to the pitching staff right now past signing either Dallas Keuchel or Craig Kimbrel. Calculation either would bolster the team'south 2019 outlook and mayhap deepen the pitching staff in 2020 and across. Whether the organization wants to take on that kind of financial obligation when either pitcher might not exist in a big league game earlier May is anyone's guess, but there's been very little in the way of recent connections between the Padres and either of those former All-Star pitchers.

Suffice it to say, in that location will be options for the arrangement to pursue if in-house options falter. But with Richards, Lucchesi and a host of young arms headlined by Paddack, the Padres hope that virtually of the answers are already pitching somewhere in the arrangement.

2019 Flavor Outlook

The Padres might accept more variance in their range of possible outcomes than whatever team in the game. Their heavy reliance on high-ceiling but unproven talents such as Tatis, Urias, Paddack, Mejia and whichever babyfaced pitchers get their first extended auditions could bring about huge yields if a few young players interruption out into immediate distinction. They're a long shot to contend in a National League that is rife with strong clubs, only there's enough upside permeating the roster to take a never-say-never arroyo.

More likely, notwithstanding, the 2019 flavor will exist one last year for the Padres to abide their time and evaluate a immature core before relaunching into all-out "win-now" fashion with regard to every spot on the roster.

How would yous grade the Padres' offseason? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors app users.)[polldaddy poll=10283895]

kiddslise1941.blogspot.com

Source: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/04/offseason-in-review-san-diego-padres-9.html

Share this post